Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 24, 3:29 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
PolymarketRafael Mariano Grossi will be serving as Secretary-General of the United Nations on 1 January 2027.
Manifold MarketsWill the next secretary general of the United Nations be a woman?
Manifold MarketsWill a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?
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PredictItWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiRules
There has never been a woman Secretary-General
- Guterres is very unlikely to seek a third term, so I will set this to resolve in 2027, but if he does then it should be extended
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next Secretary-General of the United Nations be a woman??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next Secretary-General of the United Nations be a woman? resolve?
- Will the next Secretary-General of the United Nations be a woman? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will the next Secretary-General of the United Nations be a woman? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: There has never been a woman Secretary-General