Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.5%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 23, 10:15 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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Only resolves to the next new president after Biden.
- Current and past presidents who get re-elected don't count.
- Resolves YES if a scandal about sexual impropriety that happened in office comes out that hits many of the major news sources while they're still in office, otherwise NO after their term(s) are finished.
- As this might resolve after their first term if they don't get re-elected, this won't be re-resolved if they go on to serve split terms and have such a scandal in their second unconnected term.
- This question's close date is likely to be extended by future election results.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office? resolve?
- Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Only resolves to the next new president after Biden.