Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.4%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Dec 29, 24, 5:26 PM UTCJan 6, 16, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next Millennium problem solved be solved by Chinese AI?
Manifold MarketsWill another Millennium prize problem be solved before a human steps on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnother Frontier Math Problem Solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRules
The Millennium Prize Problems are seven of the most challenging unsolved problems in mathematics, established by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000.
- Only one problem, the Poincaré Conjecture, has been solved to date (by Grigori Perelman in 2003).
- The remaining problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, Yang-Mills and Mass Gap, Navier-Stokes Existence and Smoothness, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, and Hodge Conjecture.
- Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if a human mathematician or team of mathematicians solves one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems without significant AI assistance
- Resolves NO if an AI system generates the accepted solution
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
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- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next Millennium problem to be solved be solved by a human??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next Millennium problem to be solved be solved by a human? resolve?
- Will the next Millennium problem to be solved be solved by a human? is scheduled to resolve on January 6, 2216.
- How is Will the next Millennium problem to be solved be solved by a human? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Millennium Prize Problems are seven of the most challenging unsolved problems in mathematics, established by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000.