Current community forecast
AI lab 96.9%+16.5pt
Forecasters
63
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+16.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Dec 21, 25, 5:01 AM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?
Manifold MarketsWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRules
Any successful proof seems likely to come from a team that includes both very good mathematicians and advanced AI programs.
- But which vibe will win credit in the public eye?
- It's Google DeepMind, that's an the named outcome.
- If it's Terrence Tao using GPT-6, that's a the named outcome.
- If it's David Budden using Claude, that's an the named outcome.
- If the people involved are professors at a university, that's probably a the named outcome.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department??
- Manifold Markets prices AI lab at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department? resolve?
- Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any successful proof seems likely to come from a team that includes both very good mathematicians and advanced AI programs.