Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.9%
Forecasters
174
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 6, 23, 7:13 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028
Manifold MarketsWill *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
Manifold MarketsWill *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnother Frontier Math Problem Solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028 resolve?
- Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.