Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastHodge Conjecture 38.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
58
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.9 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 26, 11:25 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028
Manifold MarketsWill *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
Manifold MarketsWill *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
Manifold MarketsWill an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the next problem considered to be solved by the consensus of the mathematical community.
- The actual prize isn’t strictly necessary for resolution, but it should be the formulation of the problem eligible for the prize.
- If OpenAI’s claimed proof of Navier-Stokes is found to be flawed, that is ignored for the purposes of this market (i.e., it resolves to the next of these 5 listed problems to be considered solved, even if NS is “solved” in the future).