Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 96.8%
Forecasters
106
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
May 11, 25, 6:28 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next Millennium problem solved be solved by Chinese AI?
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Manifold MarketsAnother Frontier Math Problem Solved by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.7M
- 24h Vol
- $99K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2030+9.0pt85%
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2029+29.1pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $17.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+4.5pt75.3%
- 221.8%
- 32%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
- before October+63.0pt97%
+3 more outcomes
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026? resolve?
- Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.