Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.1%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 12, 24, 10:52 PM UTCJan 2, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
EDIT: fixing resolution criteria directionality about amateurs
- The Millennium Prize Problems are seven famous open problems in math, all listed together in 2000.
- One was solved; as of 2024, six remain.
- Will the next one be solved by an amateur? This market resolves YES if the very next problem to be solved is solved by an amateur, and NO otherwise.
- The close date will be extended as needed.
- For the purpose of this market: