Will the mayor of San Diego or Los Angeles be charged with a federal crime for interfering with ICE before 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffCrime & Justice1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingDec 18, 24, 10:09 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The mayors of San Diego and Los Angeles operate under California state law, particularly the California Values Act (Senate Bill 54), which restricts state and local law enforcement agencies from using resources for immigration enforcement.
- Recent disputes in San Diego involve the county's policy to limit cooperation with ICE, though this primarily involves the County Board of Supervisors and Sheriff's Department rather than the mayor directly.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if either the mayor of San Diego or Los Angeles is formally charged with a federal crime specifically related to interfering with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations before January 1, 2028.
- The charge must be directly related to actions taken in their official capacity regarding ICE operations.
- The market will resolve NO if neither mayor is charged with such a federal crime before 2028.
