Current community forecast
No 78%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 26, 12:09 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The Landtag elected on 6 September 2026 (AfD 39 seats, CDU 15, SPD 8, Greens 8, Left 8, BSW 5 — 83 total, 42 needed for an absolute majority) must hold its constituent session by 6 October 2026.
- Resolves YES if, on or before 6 November 2026 (23:59 CET), the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt has held a ballot in which a candidate was actually ELECTED Ministerpraesident under Article 65 of the Landesverfassung — in any ballot, by any party, with any majority.
- Resolves NO otherwise, including if Sven Schulze simply remains in office in a caretaker capacity, and including if ballots are held but all fail.
- Source: the official plenary protocols and press releases of the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt at landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de.
- Swearing-in is not required; the successful ballot is what counts.
- WHY THIS IS UNCERTAIN — the procedure, and the deadline that no longer exists: Ballots 1 and 2 require an absolute majority of all members (42 of 83); if the first fails, the second must follow within seven days.
