Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (79.8%)
Resolved: Oct 11, 2026, 5:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes79%
No21%
Won
Lost
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KalshiRules
Specifically, will before September 2026, will there be a proof of a finitely presented discrete MF group?
- If so, this would negatively resolve a long-standing open question about if all groups are MF.
- This was described as a major open problem in group theory, and a “holy-grail” alongside two other questions.
- GPT 5.6 Sol says the question is equivalent to: “Can every countable group be faithfully approximated by finite-dimensional unitary matrices when the approximation error is measured in operator norm?”
- This question resolves YES if a proof is given this month and is generally considered valid.
- If it takes longer than August to verify but the proof was written in August, it still resolved YES.