Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026?
Trade PolicyOne-OffLatin AmericaEurope3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 31, 25, 6:04 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
A trade deal between the EU and Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay) under negotiation for ~25 years and rejected in 2019 has been agreed.
- Will the deal, or something substantially similar, be ratified by all parties (not necessarily entered into force) by the end of 2026?
- https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mercosur-set-finalise-contentious-trade-deal-2024-12-06/
- https://www.dw.com/en/eu-delays-signing-mercosur-free-trade-deal-again/a-75237389
- ITA ratification will resolve YES.
- Previous (2025) market: https://manifold.markets/table8473/will-the-eumercosur-free-trade-agre
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A trade deal between the EU and Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay) under negotiation for ~25 years and rejected in 2019 has been agreed.