Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:13 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 32.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 10, 23, 8:20 PM UTCJan 17, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom%E2%80%93United_States_free_trade_agreement
- Market resolves according to the date the agreement is effective, not the date it is signed.
- I'm expecting that if the agreement ever gets signed, the above page will look a bit more like this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93United_Kingdom_Free_Trade_Agreement, in which case I will take the date next to the "effective" field.
- If the UK and the US enter into a multilateral FTA that includes other countries, that triggers resolution.
- If the UK and US enter into a trade agreement that falls short of an FTA, that does not trigger resolution.
- Free trade agreements have a pretty universal definition so I don't anticipate any complications in resolution.
