Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Costa Rica 87.1%Leader of 10 outcomes
Costa Rica 87.1%Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 25, 9:14 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China reach an agreement to join the CPTPP by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
KalshiWill the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
KalshiWill the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will there be a UK/US free trade agreement?
Manifold MarketsNo new countries join the European Union (EU) in 2020s (2020-2029)
Manifold MarketsRules
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a trade agreement with 12 parties as of January 2025, mostly in the Pacific.
- It began as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was signed but never entered into force as the United States withdrew in 2017.
- The remaining 11 signatories instead formed the CPTPP, and were joined in 2024 by the United Kingdom.
- Various other countries have formally applied to join the agreement or expressed interest; negotiations are currently open with the named outcome, beginning on 29 November 2024.
- An answer to this market will resolve YES if that country accedes to the agreement (i.e. the agreement comes into force for it) on or before 31 December 2029.
- Note that the accession protocol does not have to come into force between the applicant and all other members for the country to accede to the agreement, just at least half the remaining members (e.g. the United Kingdom had the agreement come into force for nine countries on 15 December 2024, but for Australia it came into force on 24 December).
