Current community forecast
Yes 79.3%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingJun 21, 23, 6:58 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Source is IMF. 2023 values are 73.34k for Taiwan and 80.03 for USA.
- Resolves N/A if China invades Taiwan:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/O/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-2035) I think this is very likely based on the indicators of economic freedom and IQ, the rate of recent development, and the AI-induced boom in semiconductors.