Current community forecast
Yes 80.6%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 21, 23, 6:58 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia surpass Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
PolymarketChina unemployment rate in August
KalshiRules
Source is IMF. 2023 values are 73.34k for Taiwan and 80.03 for USA.
- Resolves N/A if China invades Taiwan:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/O/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-2035) I think this is very likely based on the indicators of economic freedom and IQ, the rate of recent development, and the AI-induced boom in semiconductors.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China? resolve?
- Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Source is IMF. 2023 values are 73.34k for Taiwan and 80.03 for USA.