Will someone other than Andy Burnham be UK Prime Minister at any point before 1 August 2028?
PoliticsOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 53%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 20, 26, 2:33 PM UTCAug 1, 28, 9:00 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market resolves based on whether any individual other than Andy Burnham formally holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time during the period from 21 July 2026 up to and including 1 August 2028 (UK local time).
- Resolves YES if:
- Any person other than Andy Burnham is formally appointed Prime Minister by the monarch during the resolution window; or
- Any person other than Andy Burnham serves as Prime Minister, including in an acting, interim, or caretaker capacity, for any duration (even briefly) within the resolution window; or
- Andy Burnham resigns, dies, is removed, or otherwise ceases to hold office and another individual assumes the role, even temporarily, before the end date.
- Resolves NO if:
