What are the current odds for Will someone in the US be executed for child sex crimes by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 89.4% as of October 16, 2026.

Will someone in the US be executed for child sex crimes by 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 89.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Mar 17, 24, 2:08 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Several states are passing or considering laws that would allow the death penalty for people convicted of certain child sex crimes.

This is despite the Supreme Court's ruling in Kennedy v.
Louisiana that stated that this was unconstitutional.
However, the states passing laws could be setting up a challenge to this precedent.
This question will resolve YES if someone is executed in the United States for child sex crimes by 2030.
If they would have been executed for other crimes anyways (eg. they had a murder charge) this will not resolve YES in that case.