Will "Simplex Progress Report - July 2025" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffScience4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.1%
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2
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 25, 4:45 AM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Simplex Progress Report - July 2025 is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Simplex Progress Report - July 2025" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "Simplex Progress Report - July 2025" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Simplex Progress Report - July 2025" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Will "Simplex Progress Report - July 2025" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.