Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?
One-OffPoliticsSouth AsiaCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 26, 1:22 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been living in exile in India since being ousted during a August 2024 student uprising.
- While she announced her desire to end her exile and return to Bangladesh by late 2026, doing so carries massive stakes.
- A special tribunal in Dhaka sentenced Hasina to death in absentia over human rights violations and genocide tied to the violent 2024 protest crackdown.
- Bangladesh's current interim government has banned her party, and authorities confirmed she will face immediate arrest if she sets foot in the country.
- Hasina frames her return as a duty to her supporters, while critics maintain she faces prison or execution upon arrival.
- This market resolves YES if Hasina physically enters Bangladesh by December 31, 2026, and NO if legal risks and political instability keep her in exile.
