Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?
One-OffUS PoliticsRegulationPolitics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 72.2%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 30, 24, 12:12 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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[tweet]This resolves Yes in the event that SCOTUS strikes down the circuit court’s ruling.
- It resolves No if the supremes uphold or remand the case.
- It could resolve to a percent if there is a peculiar partial agreement that carves out some constitutional protections but not others.
- This market can resolve based on the above case’s lineage, or any very similar case with the same implications.
