Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJudge David J. Porter 96%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 25, 6:37 PM UTCSep 8, 27, 6:23 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
