Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJudge David J. Porter 96%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 25, 6:37 PM UTCSep 8, 27, 6:23 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $230.4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.6%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.6%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $122.2K
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.1K
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- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets prices Judge David J. Porter at 96% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? resolve?
- Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? is scheduled to resolve on September 8, 2027.
- How is Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria