Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 53%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 25, 3:36 PM UTCSep 8, 27, 6:38 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor?
Manifold MarketsNorth Carolina enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketWill California’s billionaire tax take effect?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This resolves YES if Kalshi prevails in all current appellate cases on CEA preemption against state gambling enforcement, defined as:
- Third Circuit (New Jersey): the court affirms the district court’s preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from NJ enforcement or dismisses the appeal in a way that leaves that injunction in place.
- Docket: Kalshiex LLC v.
- Mary Jo Flaherty et al, No. 25-1922.
- (dockets.justia.com)