Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
RegulationOne-OffCommoditiesPoliticsElection1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 25, 6:27 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 7:22 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This resolves “Yes” if the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit issues a decision in Kalshiex LLC v.
- Martin et al.
- (No. 25-1892) that grants Kalshi the relief it seeks on appeal (e.g., reverses or vacates the district court’s denial of injunctive relief or otherwise rules in Kalshi’s favor). “No” if the Fourth Circuit affirms the district court or dismisses the appeal without granting Kalshi relief.
- Published or unpublished opinions count.
- If the appeal is dismissed (including voluntarily) without relief to Kalshi, resolves “No.” Sources for resolution: Fourth Circuit opinions page and the case docket.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor? resolve?
- Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria