Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
One-OffRegulationCommoditiesPoliticsElection1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 8, 25, 6:27 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 7:22 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This resolves “Yes” if the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit issues a decision in Kalshiex LLC v.
- Martin et al.
- (No. 25-1892) that grants Kalshi the relief it seeks on appeal (e.g., reverses or vacates the district court’s denial of injunctive relief or otherwise rules in Kalshi’s favor). “No” if the Fourth Circuit affirms the district court or dismisses the appeal without granting Kalshi relief.
- Published or unpublished opinions count.
- If the appeal is dismissed (including voluntarily) without relief to Kalshi, resolves “No.” Sources for resolution: Fourth Circuit opinions page and the case docket.
