Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 4:23 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
Manifold MarketsWill New York win their suit against Kalshi?
Manifold MarketsKalshi generally available to UK customers by when?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Before January 1, 2028, will a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) operate or officially announce a physical location in California where members of the public can trade event contracts in person?” — Resolves YES based on a press release, news report, or SEC/CFTC filing.
- Doesn’t need to literally be blackjack, just any physical “trading floor” open to the public.
- See https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-10/bond-trading-gets-cheaper
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $230.4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.6%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.6%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $122.2K
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.1K
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Kalshi Felt Tables before 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Kalshi Felt Tables before 2028 resolve?
- Kalshi Felt Tables before 2028 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Kalshi Felt Tables before 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Before January 1, 2028, will a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) operate or officially announce a physical location in California where members of the public can trade event contracts in person?” — Resolves YES based on a press release, news report, or SEC/CFTC filing.