Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 4:23 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Before January 1, 2028, will a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) operate or officially announce a physical location in California where members of the public can trade event contracts in person?” — Resolves YES based on a press release, news report, or SEC/CFTC filing.
- Doesn’t need to literally be blackjack, just any physical “trading floor” open to the public.
- See https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-10/bond-trading-gets-cheaper