What are the current odds for Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2028?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 74.8% as of November 1, 2026.

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2028

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 74.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 21 minutes ago

Oct 26, 25, 10:10 AM UTCJan 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market predicts whether Kalshi will offer any sports prediction contracts (such as team championships, game outcomes, etc.) during January 2028.

Kalshi began offering sports contracts in January 2025 after self-certifying them with the CFTC.
Since then, they've faced legal challenges from multiple states, with mixed results in court.
Some federal courts have ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws (Nevada, New Jersey), while others have ruled in favor of state regulation (Maryland).
The market will resolve YES if Kalshi offers at least one sports-related prediction contract (defined as a prediction on a sports team to win or lose a sporting event) at any point during January 2028.
It will resolve NO if Kalshi offers zero sports-related prediction contracts during that month.