Current community forecast
Yes 61.9%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 8, 26, 10:03 PM UTCAug 14, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the UK introduce proportional representation for general elections before 2030?
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Reform UK's next published manifesto (after their 2024 manifesto "Our Contract with You") does not include a commitment to proportional representation or a referendum on PR.
- It resolves NO if the manifesto maintains or reaffirms such a commitment.
- Resolution will be determined by examining the official manifesto document published by Reform UK ahead of their next general election campaign.
- The manifesto should be checked against Reform UK's 2024 manifesto, which called for a referendum on PR.
- Reform UK supports electoral reform, favouring a switch to a proportional voting system; in their 2024 manifesto, they called for a referendum on PR.
Open markets
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- $31.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $219.7M
- 24h Vol
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.9M
- 24h Vol
- $720.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
+48 more outcomes
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- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt5%
- July0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+5.0pt56.9%
- D-House, R-Senate31.4%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt10.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 62% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto? resolve?
- Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto? is scheduled to resolve on August 14, 2029.
- How is Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria