Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 56.2%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMay 9, 24, 9:14 PM UTCJan 1, 53, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?
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Manifold MarketsWill India overtake South Africa in GDP per Capita by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsUK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
PolymarketCPI YoY in November
KalshiRules
Using IMF nominal, non-PPP adjusted GDP per capita in USD.
- For 2021, Poland was 23,014 and the UK’s 51,075.