Current community forecast
No 76.7%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 23, 3:53 PM UTCJan 1, 55, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
The remaining EU member states (EU2023) are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.
- When the GDP and population data for year 2048 is available for the UK and other listed countries is available, we calculate GDP per capita for the UK and for the combined EU2023 economies.
- We then compare relative growth for the values from 2018.
- The answer resolves yes if the relative growth is bigger for the UK than for EU2023.
- We will use data from https://data.worldbank.org or some other reputable source if this one is not available.
- In case of some of the countries splitting (e.g. Scotland gaining independence) their GDP and populations should be combined.
