Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 12:37 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if OpenAI officially releases a new model family to the general public or via its developer API on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, a "new model family" is defined as:
- Any model officially designated under the GPT-6 lineage (e.g., GPT-6, GPT-6o, GPT-6-mini).
- The official public or API release of the "Astra" model family (regardless of whether it is branded as "Astra," GPT-6, or another major name).
