Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?
Corporate ActionsAIOne-Off22dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.2%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 3, 26, 8:03 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Ed Zitron claims in a recent interview that Anthropic and OpenAI are unable to measure the ROI associated with their products. he goes on to say:
- “When it comes to the model companies they are horrifyingly, horrifyingly unprofitable.
- I think OpenAI lost twenty-something billion last year.
- Anthropic's probably not far behind that..
- That’s the thing — when we see these S1s I think it is going to be kind of a massacre, because I think that people have this view that these companies are becoming more profitable or even have a path to profitability, and they don’t have one”
- Resolution criteria
Open markets
Corporate Actions
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies? resolve?
- Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Ed Zitron claims in a recent interview that Anthropic and OpenAI are unable to measure the ROI associated with their products. he goes on to say: