KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 47.4%Leader of 3 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$399.8
Low liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Financial TimesThe InformationMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforABCNBCThe Washington Postthe Associated PressReutersAxiosFox NewsCNNPoliticoBloomberg NewsCBSCNBCThe New York Times
- Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests.
- This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity.
- Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold.
- Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings.
- Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 20, 2029 at 47% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? resolve?
- Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.