Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAnthropic first 94.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+9.8 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 11, 26, 1:50 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
the named outcome
- Resolution terms:
- • “Trades publicly” = the company’s shares begin regular-session trading on a major public exchange (NYSE/Nasdaq or equivalent).
- Traditional IPO or direct listing both count.