Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastChinaManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 8:28 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 11:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by which date?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketUSD x Iranian rials End of October?
PolymarketAnother Iranian Ambassador expelled by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Israel next strike Iranian territory? (window closes Nov 30, 2026)
Manifold MarketsWill China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the U.S. Treasury's OFAC newly designates a bank headquartered in mainland China and the designation explicitly cites facilitating trade with Iran or Iranian oil.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Designations of non-bank companies, Hong Kong-only entities, or banks designated solely for unrelated conduct do not count.
- Primary source: OFAC sanctions programs and press releases.
- The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.
