Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastChina21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 26, 1:43 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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MyriadRules
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the U.S. Treasury's OFAC newly designates a bank headquartered in mainland China and the designation explicitly cites facilitating trade with Iran or Iranian oil.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Designations of non-bank companies, Hong Kong-only entities, or banks designated solely for unrelated conduct do not count.
- Primary source: OFAC sanctions programs and press releases.
- The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026? resolve?
- Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the U.S. Treasury's OFAC newly designates a bank headquartered in mainland China and the designation explicitly cites facilitating trade with Iran or Iranian oil.