Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.4%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 25, 11:21 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Norway has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- This also applies if a main successor to Norway joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted.
- If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.
Open markets
Europe
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.6pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.9M
- 24h Vol
- $661.5K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-4.0pt83.2%
- Yes+4.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $952.6K
- 24h Vol
- $150.6K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.1pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Norway become a member of the EU before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Norway become a member of the EU before 2040? resolve?
- Will Norway become a member of the EU before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is Will Norway become a member of the EU before 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Norway has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.