Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 25, 11:23 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iceland has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- This also applies if a main successor to Iceland joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted.
- If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iceland become a member of the EU before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iceland become a member of the EU before 2040? resolve?
- Will Iceland become a member of the EU before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is Will Iceland become a member of the EU before 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iceland has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.