Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 2, 25, 11:23 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketFrance declares state of emergency by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iceland has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- This also applies if a main successor to Iceland joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted.
- If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.