What are the current odds for Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.5% as of October 27, 2026.

Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?

EuropeOne-Off13y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 86.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 15 hours ago

Stale

Mar 22, 25, 10:49 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Canada has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.

This also applies if a main successor to Canada joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted.
If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.