Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.2%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 2, 25, 11:19 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iceland become a member of the EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?
Manifold MarketsSwitzerland’s September Referendum: What will pass?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Switzerland has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- This also applies if a main successor to Switzerland joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted.
- If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.6pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.9M
- 24h Vol
- $661.5K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-4.0pt83.2%
- Yes+4.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $952.6K
- 24h Vol
- $150.6K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.1pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040? resolve?
- Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Switzerland has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.