Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98.6%
Forecasters
111
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 5:12 AM UTCJun 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
A year from now (market creation date)
- Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves YES if mathematicians widely agree the proof is probably valid by the deadline.
- Resolves NO if mathematicians are widely uncertain, skeptical, or do not consider it solved.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027? resolve?
- Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027? is scheduled to resolve on June 3, 2027.
- How is Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A year from now (market creation date)