Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98.8%
Forecasters
62
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 26, 6:03 AM UTCOct 8, 26, 6:03 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsNavier-Stokes Drama Prop Bets
Manifold MarketsWhich of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
tristanbuckmaster (@[email protected])
- [link preview]Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Only the Millennium Prize formulation of the Navier-Stokes problem is valid for a YES resolution.
- Partial solutions or progress towards a solution will not count.
- Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve YES, OpenAI must have found the full solution before this market was created.
- Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator intends to resolve the market based on the Lean-verified proof rather than waiting for formal peer review.
- They will request a re-resolution if the proof is later found to be incorrect.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes???
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes?? resolve?
- Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes?? is scheduled to resolve on October 8, 2026.
- How is Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes?? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: tristanbuckmaster (@[email protected])