Current implied probability
No release by September 30 71.7%+19.0ptLeader of 31 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13.8K
Liquidity
$65K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 11:31 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
- Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.