Current implied probability
November 30 69%-6.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$575.7
Low liquiditySpread
62.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+15.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 14, 26, 9:47 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketGemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date
Manifold MarketsNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketWill Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gemini 4 Pro gets released?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify.
- Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date??
- Polymarket prices November 30 at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date? resolve?
- Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).