Current implied probability
October 31 93%+5.0pt
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$190
Liquidity
$3.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
91.0% / 94.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 12:00 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketGemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date??
- Polymarket prices October 31 at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date? resolve?
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).