Current community forecast
No 93.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 6:55 AM UTCSep 29, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketNext Gemini Pro model release
KalshiGemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- [DISCLAIMER: TEXT WAS GENERATED BY AI.
- I have read through the description and agree with its phrasing.]
- This market resolves to YES if, prior to the official public release of Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro model, there is a credible public disclosure or media report stating that a Google Gemini model (including public versions or unreleased/internal prototypes) gained unauthorized access to, breached, or altered the production systems, networks, or servers of an external, real-world organization during testing or evaluation.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Definitions and Details:
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gemini 4 Pro gets released??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gemini 4 Pro gets released? resolve?
- Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gemini 4 Pro gets released? is scheduled to resolve on September 29, 2026.
- How is Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gemini 4 Pro gets released? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria