Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 14, 25, 8:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What % of the vote will the Democrat get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
Manifold MarketsWill Destiny vote for the democrat candidate in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
My mom voted for Trump 3 times in a row, and the last time she voted for a Democrat was Clinton 1996.
- However, she has stated she would vote for Talarico over Paxton in the Texas Senate race and she would have supported Bernie in 2016 over Trump.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will my mom vote for a Democrat in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will my mom vote for a Democrat in 2026? resolve?
- Will my mom vote for a Democrat in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will my mom vote for a Democrat in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: My mom voted for Trump 3 times in a row, and the last time she voted for a Democrat was Clinton 1996.