Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 27, 26, 11:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsCO-04 House election: Lauren Boebert vote percent
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Lauren Boebert wins the general election for Colorado's 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026.
- The Republican primary is June 30, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official election results from the Colorado Secretary of State or Associated Press race calls.
- Boebert was elected to the 4th district with 53.6% of the vote in 2024.
- After one term in Congress representing the 3rd District, Boebert nearly lost reelection in 2022, then moved across the state and switched to the more heavily Republican 4th District.
