Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.9%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 7, 24, 1:41 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kamala Harris be elected President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Republican presidential candidate win any state Kamala Harris won in 2024?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party Nominee for President for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris run for California Governor?
KalshiWill Kamala Harris win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWhen will Kamala Harris announce her presidential candidacy?
KalshiRules
Must be as the presidential candidate, not vice president to another person
- Must be a serious campaign as by my judgement
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Kamala Harris run in the 2028 election primary??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Kamala Harris run in the 2028 election primary? resolve?
- Will Kamala Harris run in the 2028 election primary? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will Kamala Harris run in the 2028 election primary? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Must be as the presidential candidate, not vice president to another person