Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 26, 1:07 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Josh Shapiro say during Face the Nation?
KalshiWill Josh Shapiro win the Pennsylvania general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExWill Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?
Manifold MarketsWill Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?
Manifold MarketsJosh Shapiro margin of victory
KalshiPennsylvania Governor election: Josh Shapiro vote percent
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026.
- The market resolves YES if Josh Shapiro wins the general election and NO if he loses.
- Resolution will be determined by official results from the Pennsylvania Department of State (https://www.pa.gov/en/government/how-government-works/elections.html).
- Shapiro announced in January 2026 that he would run for reelection to a second term.
- Shapiro was first elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano by 15 points.
