Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 56%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 25, 9:56 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Joe Biden outlive Donald Trump?
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if:
- Joe Biden is still alive when Donald Trump's current presidential term ends (normally January 20, 2029), or if Trump's presidency ends earlier for any reason (resignation, removal from office, death) and Biden is still alive at that time.
- The market will resolve to NO if:
- Joe Biden dies before Trump's presidency concludes.
- Market will continue in the event of a Trump presidency continuing beyond January 20th 2029, until one of the conditions are met.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency? resolve?
- Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria