Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary?
PoliticsOne-OffAIUS PoliticsElectionManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 3:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
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Current community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleFeb 10, 26, 2:57 AMAug 19, 26, 3:01 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
Rules
I hope not. -------------- Resolves when all votes are counted, or when it becomes mathematically impossible for him to drop below or rise above 9%.
- YES if more than 9%, NO if 9% or lower.
- If he drops out or is not on the ballot for any reason, then resolves NO. -------------- Recent polls have him at 3-5%, with 40-50% undecided.
- Outlier poll from "Patriot Polling" has him at 23% (!). -------------- Snippet from Wikipedia Article:
- "In his announcement video, Fishback criticized Donalds' record in Congress, and later attacked Donalds for his ties to "corporate interests," calling him a "slave to his donors".[12][13][21][20]
- Fishback has been described as a strong supporter of Florida governor Ron DeSantis, and has praised his "historical record" while in office.[22][23] During his campaign, Fishback defended supporters of far-right political commentator Nick Fuentes, saying, "I've found the audience of young men who follow and watch Nick Fuentes to be actually incredibly informed and insightful and very patriotic."[24] Fishback has been described as a "groyper",[25] a label which he disputes.[5][26]
