Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.8%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 25, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel recognize a state of Palestine before the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
PolymarketWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiWhich countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
PolymarketWho will recognize Palestine before 2027?
KalshiWill Syria recognize Israel by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Counts only if it is not recognized by any other UN full member nation.
- In 2025 they recognized Somaliland
- Resolves YES if the Bay Area ceases to exist before close.
- Resolves NO if New York ceases to exist before close.
- Resolves N/A if AGI comes next Friday the 13, and resolves 67% if I hear someone except @JeromeHPowell say 67 within 2 hours of creating this market.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel recognize some other micronation again in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Israel recognize some other micronation again in 2026? resolve?
- Will Israel recognize some other micronation again in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Israel recognize some other micronation again in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Counts only if it is not recognized by any other UN full member nation.